Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that divided the nation and caused chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in universities but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with the basics. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. Each writes two essays that aim for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments cover national emblems, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the notion that there could be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a incompetent official who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will eventually not succeed but both parties has possesses important lessons to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster must engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
